![]() ![]() ![]() Event attribution statements then are statements about the changes in the magnitude or probability of an event. The role of anthropogenic climate change on a tropical cyclone’s existence, if any, is manifested through changes in the magnitude or frequency of these causal conditions. As with any complex phenomena, the genesis of a tropical cyclone occurs when the state of the atmosphere-ocean system is favorable for it ( 18, 19). This attribution methodology has been used to identify the current and future human influence, if any, on the wind speed and precipitation of 15 historical tropical cyclones, including Hurricanes Katrina, Maria, and Irma ( 16), and has been referred to as a “storyline” approach to attribution ( 17).Įxtreme event attribution is an exercise in causality. Recently, the “hindcast attribution method” ( 13), described in Methods, was introduced to make attribution statements about present-day tropical cyclones and other severe storms, similar to the “pseudo–global warming” approach for the projection of future climate extremes ( 14, 15). The lag time between extreme weather events and subsequent attribution statements has been steadily decreasing as the community’s expertise has developed to a point that several European weather forecast agencies are currently planning operational attribution capabilities in the near future ( 12). While a human influence on the precipitation from individual extreme storms has been identified before ( 5, 6), Hurricane Harvey was the first true tropical cyclone to undergo these analyses ( 7– 11). Since the pioneering analysis of the 2003 European heatwave ( 3), substantial advancements in attribution statements about the influence of anthropogenic climate change on the frequency and magnitude of individual extreme weather and climate events have been made ( 4). Tropical cyclones, extreme temperature, drought, and severe weather account for most of the increasing damages and economic impacts in the United States ( 2). Caption by Michon Scott.Change in extreme weather and extreme climate events is a principal way that society experiences the impacts of anthropogenic climate change ( 1). NASA Earth Observatory image by Jesse Allen, using data from the TRMM Science Data and Information System at Goddard Space Flight Center. November is typically the rainiest month for Venice and Florence. Venice also suffered severe flooding in November, brought on by a combination of heavy rains and strong winds from the Adriatic Sea that pushed seawater onshore, the Weather Channel reported. The head of Tuscany’s regional government asked for intervention from the army to assist with rescue and cleanup efforts. In the area of Carrara alone, about 50 people had to be evacuated. In November 2012, rivers in Tuscany burst their banks as residents awaited rescue from their rooftops. However, November precipitation totals have surpassed 100 millimeters (3.93 inches) seven times since 1999. AccuWeather reported that the long-term average for rainfall in November in Italy is 80 millimeters (3.14 inches). The heavy rains in November 2012 appeared to fit within a pattern from the past decade or so. As a result, local rainfall totals measured from the ground may differ from the estimates shown here. Because this image is an estimate of the rainfall recorded over a very large area when the satellites were overhead, it may miss pockets of heavy rain in smaller areas, or short periods of more or less intense rain. The MPA estimates rainfall by combining measurements from many satellites and calibrating them using rainfall measurements from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. This image is based on data from the Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (MPA) produced at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. The heaviest rainfall is concentrated southeast of Florence. Trace amounts of rain appear in pale yellow. The lightest-less than 40 millimeters (1.6 inches)-appears in light green. The heaviest rainfall-more than 320 millimeters (12.6 inches)-appears in dark blue. This map shows rainfall totals in Italy and other areas around the Mediterranean Sea from November 6 to 13, 2012. ![]() Some of the heaviest rainfall struck Tuscany and Umbria, according to the Flood Observatory. At least a half-inch (13 millimeters) of rain fell daily for five consecutive days, and often more, AccuWeather reported. A low-pressure system stalled over northern and central Italy in early November 2012. ![]()
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